Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
