🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January surged in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. A single trader, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Trading information shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a bet based on non-public details," said an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are growing concerned. A bill presented on Monday would prevent federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector were examined under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Insider trading is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."