A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
